The old Wall Street adage has a familiar ring this time of year: sell in May and go away. And with oil near $100 a barrel, consumer sentiment at an all-time low, and Iran’s conflict continuing to destabilize the global economy, the bears would say the case has never been stronger. Stocks are, after all, entering what has historically been the weakest six consecutive months of the calendar year. That said, the S&P 500 just crossed 7,000, and the hard data backing the markets up suggests that following conventional wisdom this May could be a costly mistake.
Here’s what you need to know before you decide to bail out:
1. The old adage most investors know
“Sell in May and go away” is a stock market adage based on what the Stock Trader’s Almanac refers to as the “best six months of the year.” Historical data shows the top-performing six-month rolling period has been November through April, hence the saying that investors should sell in May and get back in in November. History, in fact, shows this calendar-based theory has real flaws. More often than not, stocks tend to record gains throughout the entire year. So while there is some reasoning behind the pattern, blindly following it may not make sense, or make you dollars and cents, instead cost you significant portfolio appreciation.
The historical case isn’t nothing to sneeze at. Since 1945, the S&P 500 has averaged close to 7% during the November-April period, more than triple the roughly 2% it has managed from May through October over the same time frame. More telling: since 1990, that summer window has actually been a net loser, with the index finishing lower the majority of the time. Small-cap and global stocks show the same seasonal tilt.
2. A market that didn’t get the memo
Here’s the uncomfortable truth in those numbers: despite the risks that sent US stocks tumbling nearly 10% over a two-month period earlier this year, the market recovered everything it lost in just over two weeks and is now trading near record highs. The S&P 500 has surged past 7,000 even as oil hovers around $100 a barrel with consumer sentiment sitting at an all-time low. That kind of snap-back resilience is not what you’d expect from a market preparing to roll over for the summer.
3. The Strait of Hormuz wildcard
Ongoing conflict with Iran has destabilized parts of the global economy and cast a long shadow over the energy markets. Any sustained disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil flows, would ripple through inflation expectations and central bank policy. Yet markets have priced in some of this risk without buckling. According to global financial services company, Fidelity, as reported in its recent market outlook notes the broader global economy remains in a solid, unsynchronized expansion, with international policies underpinning growth even as regional tensions flare. That’s not exactly a backdrop that screams “Mayday, Mayday get out now.”
4. What the data appears to show
Despite the aforementioned risks, three pillars are keeping the bulls optimistic leading into summer according to the global investment firm:
- Earnings strength. Q1 2026 earnings season has been encouraging. S&P 500 Q1 and full-year 2026 estimates have risen, with 9 of the 11 sectors seeing upward revisions to forecasts, led by financials, tech, and real estate.
- Economic resilience. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently noted that the economy and labor market look strong and the company’s latest outlook affirms solid US economic activity and a broader global expansion underpinned by international policy, despite some softness in the job market.
- Rate cut hopes. While interest rates haven’t come down as quickly as expected and fed funds futures indicate a low probability of cuts this year, that possibility remains open, especially if there is a change in leadership at the US central bank.
5. Stay but stay sharp
Should you “sell in May and go away”? There are likely better strategies available. Rather than exiting entirely, consider sector rotation. According to CFRA analysis, cyclical sectors — consumer discretionary, industrials, materials, and technology — have outpaced the market from November through April, while defensive sectors have led from May through October. It might make sense to rotate toward defensive stocks if you must act on the basis of the calendar.
If you have gains you want to protect, you might alternatively want to consider a “sell in May and potentially stay” approach, trimming only the positions you don’t want to hold for the long haul, and keeping cash on hand to adjust your mix as needed. And always remember it’s best to do your own research and work with a financial advisor.
*Disclaimer: This article is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. It is simply a broad overview of historical market trends, publicly available data, and general market perspectives for informational purposes only. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All data and analysis referenced herein are drawn from third-party sources including the Stock Trader’s Almanac, FactSet, CFRA, and Fidelity Investments.
**Source: Stats and market data cited in this article were sourced from Fidelity’s Active Investor Weekly Newsletter, May 1, 2026 edition.
